Launch
A product launch, new indication, new geography, access plan, or commercial ramp.
Forecast Integrity Review
Before leadership relies on the forecast, know exactly where it can break.
I independently review one important commercial forecast tied to one defined decision. The point isn’t to make the model prettier. It’s to tell you what’s supported, what’s fragile, and what evidence would change the call.
Typical fee: $25K to $50K. Typical timeline: 5 to 10 business days. My findings never depend on selling you follow-on work.
Best fit
A real decision, a real forecast, and time for an honest challenge.
Scale
A sales-force, portfolio, lifecycle, capacity, or capital-allocation decision.
Transact
An acquisition, licensing deal, BD&L, joint venture, strategic investment, or integration case.
The verdict
You get a straight answer, in one of four words.
Every Review ends with a clear conclusion tied to the decision in front of you, plus the reasoning and evidence behind it.
Rely
The forecast supports the decision. Any remaining weaknesses are immaterial to it.
Repair
The structure is sound, but specific assumptions need rebuilding before leadership relies on it.
Redesign
The model can’t answer this decision as built. It needs a different architecture.
Stop
Don’t use this forecast for this decision. Here is what would need to be true first.
How it works
Trace. Reconstruct. Challenge. Bound. Decide.
- 01Trace
Map the decision, the forecast’s lineage, its key drivers, the evidence, and the owners.
- 02Reconstruct
Independently reproduce the economics that actually drive the decision.
- 03Challenge
Press on assumptions, timing, capacity, interactions, overrides, and causal logic.
- 04Bound
Build coherent downside cases and honest ranges tied to real drivers.
- 05Decide
Deliver the verdict, the thresholds, and the evidence that would change it.
What you receive
A short decision package, not a decorative audit binder.
Executive conclusion
Rely, Repair, Redesign, or Stop, tied to the decision you’re making.
Assumption map
Material drivers, owners, evidence strength, dependencies, and open questions.
Challenge cases
An independent reconstruction, a coherent downside, sensitivities, and failure modes.
Decision thresholds
The values or conditions at which the decision logic changes.
Action and reversal register
What to fix now, and what future evidence should trigger a rethink.
Executive readout
A conversation with me about what it means for the decision. No technical theater.
Next step
Have a decision coming up? Let’s talk it through.
Send me a few non-confidential sentences about the decision and when it lands. I’ll reply personally with an honest read on whether I can help, and the smallest scope that would.