Are the material assumptions explicit?
Leadership can identify the few assumptions that materially change the result, not merely inspect formulas or output tables.
Free self-check
The Board-Safe Forecast Test
Seven questions to tell whether a forecast is ready to support a big decision, or just ready to be presented. It takes about two minutes, and your answers never leave this page.
Score the forecast
Mark a question supported only when the evidence is explicit and reviewable.
This isn’t an accuracy score. It’s a check on whether the forecast is ready for the decision in front of you.
Does every material assumption have an owner?
Someone is accountable for the evidence, update cadence, and judgment attached to each consequential assumption.
Can every material change be traced?
Leadership can distinguish new evidence, method changes, timing shifts, and management overrides.
Do downside scenarios describe a coherent operating state?
The downside is not a uniform percentage haircut. Revenue, cost, capacity, cash, and timing assumptions move together credibly.
Are overrides visible and governed?
Manual judgment is documented, owned, time-stamped, and reviewable after actual results arrive.
Does the forecast specify what leadership should monitor?
Thresholds, leading indicators, and decision triggers are defined before the outcome becomes obvious.
Is the forecast fit for this specific decision?
The model's horizon, granularity, uncertainty, and update cadence match the decision leadership is about to make.
Interpretation
A single “no” can be material.
The questions are not equally weighted. A missing assumption owner may be inconvenient. An incoherent downside case before a $1B signing may be disqualifying.
Potentially decision-ready. Verify that any remaining weakness is immaterial to the decision.
Material repair is likely required before leadership relies on the forecast.
The forecast is probably not ready for consequential executive use.
Want a second opinion?
Not sure how to score one of these?
That’s exactly what a Forecast Integrity Review answers. I test the evidence, not the confidence of the person presenting it.