The base and downside share the same logic
There are scenarios, but they’re variations on one architecture rather than genuinely different views of how the market could unfold.
Forecast Red Team
When the decision is too important to check from inside the same model.
I build a second one. I rebuild the critical economics independently, construct alternative scenarios, press hardest on the assumptions most likely to change the decision, and show leadership exactly where and why the answers differ.
Most Forecast Red Team engagements fall between $125K and $300K. Scope depends on the decision, evidence base, model complexity, and degree of independent reconstruction required. Typical duration is 2 to 6 weeks.
When a Red Team makes sense
The economics need a genuinely independent second path.
A few uncertain drivers dominate value
Timing, uptake, access, pricing, field productivity, competition, or partner performance could change the recommendation.
The challenge has to come from outside
The decision deserves evidence and logic that don’t originate with the team most invested in the current thesis.
What the work covers
Deep enough to challenge the decision, focused enough to stay useful.
Independent reconstruction
The drivers and economics that matter, rebuilt from source evidence and operating logic.
Alternative scenarios
Coherent base, downside, upside, delay, competition, and failure cases.
Sensitivity and thresholds
The assumptions and combinations capable of changing value or the recommendation.
Failure modes
How the decision can disappoint even when every individual assumption looks reasonable.
Executive challenge package
Where my view differs from the internal case, the evidence for each difference, and what remains open.
Monitoring and reversal criteria
The evidence that should change confidence after you commit.
Next step
For the decision that deserves a true second opinion.
Send me a few non-confidential sentences about the decision and when it lands. I’ll reply personally with an honest read on whether I can help, and the smallest scope that would.