Transact: M&A Evaluation
Test the commercial forecast before it becomes the valuation anchor.
For product, product-line, geographic, or company acquisitions, I independently rebuild the commercial drivers that could change the valuation, the capital required, the integration plan, or the recommendation itself.
Questions I help you answer
The answers leadership actually needs.
Which commercial assumptions dominate value?
Do the base and downside cases describe genuinely different worlds, or one model with a haircut?
What post-close evidence should change our confidence in the thesis?
What I model
The drivers that move the answer.
- Product and portfolio acquisition forecasts
- Geographic expansion and market-entry deals
- Commercial due diligence and independent reconstruction
- Synergy, integration, and timing assumptions
- Downside cases and thresholds tied to valuation
What you get
A model you can interrogate, not a static number.
- Independent commercial forecast reconstruction
- Coherent transaction scenarios
- Valuation-impact thresholds
- Post-close monitoring and reversal criteria
I can build this from scratch, independently review the model you already have, or rebuild it as a red team when the stakes justify a second analytical path.
Ways to work together
Start with the smallest scope that answers the question.
Build
Forecast Modeling
Scope: fixed before work begins
When you need a new driver-based model or scenario system built around the decision.
See the modeling engagementValidate
Forecast Integrity Review
Typical fee: $25K to $50K
When a model already exists and you want an independent verdict on it in 5 to 10 business days.
See the ReviewChallenge
Forecast Red Team
Most engagements: $125K to $300K
When the economics deserve a fully independent rebuild and a hard challenge, usually over 2 to 6 weeks.
See the Red TeamNext step
Have a decision coming up? Let’s talk it through.
Send me a few non-confidential sentences about the decision and when it lands. I’ll reply personally with an honest read on whether I can help, and the smallest scope that would.