Launch: New Product Launch Modeling
Model launch demand before the assumptions become commitments.
Patient and procedure populations, eligibility, access, pricing, adoption, competitive entry, launch timing, field capacity, and persistence all interact. I turn those drivers into a scenario system leadership can question before launch, not after.
Questions I help you answer
The answers leadership actually needs.
Which outside factors dominate the range, and which ones do we control?
How much of the forecast depends on field-force execution?
What happens when access, competition, timing, and adoption move together?
What I model
The drivers that move the answer.
- Addressable and treated population
- Access, price, gross-to-net, and reimbursement
- Adoption, persistence, switching, and competitive entry
- Launch timing, geography, and field-force capacity
- Base, upside, downside, and delay scenarios
What you get
A model you can interrogate, not a static number.
- Driver-based launch model
- Base, upside, downside, delay, and competitive cases
- Sensitivity and decision-threshold analysis
- An interactive scenario app where it helps leadership use the model
I can build this from scratch, independently review the model you already have, or rebuild it as a red team when the stakes justify a second analytical path.
Ways to work together
Start with the smallest scope that answers the question.
Build
Forecast Modeling
Scope: fixed before work begins
When you need a new driver-based model or scenario system built around the decision.
See the modeling engagementValidate
Forecast Integrity Review
Typical fee: $25K to $50K
When a model already exists and you want an independent verdict on it in 5 to 10 business days.
See the ReviewChallenge
Forecast Red Team
Most engagements: $125K to $300K
When the economics deserve a fully independent rebuild and a hard challenge, usually over 2 to 6 weeks.
See the Red TeamNext step
Have a decision coming up? Let’s talk it through.
Send me a few non-confidential sentences about the decision and when it lands. I’ll reply personally with an honest read on whether I can help, and the smallest scope that would.