Proof memo 1
ARR Dashboard Overstatement
Visible claim: Board-facing ARR looked clean and stable.
Hidden defect: The dashboard mixed account grain, subscription grain, opportunity status, and renewal logic. Expansion revenue could be counted at close and again when the renewed subscription became active.
Executive risk: Leadership may overstate recurring revenue, overhire, misread retention, or present a valuation story that cannot survive diligence.
Proof memo 2
LTV / CAC Misallocation
Visible claim: Acquisition economics appeared attractive by channel.
Hidden defect: Customer cohorts, acquisition cost windows, payback period, retention curves, discounts, and account expansion were blended across incompatible time windows.
Executive risk: Capital can shift toward channels that look efficient only because cost and value are not matched to the same customer, period, and retention behavior.
Proof memo 3
Board Forecast Fragility
Visible claim: The board forecast looked ready for executive presentation.
Hidden defect: The model depended on hidden overrides, stale drivers, weak downside cases, manually pasted actuals, and assumptions that were no longer tied to owned business logic.
Executive risk: A confident board narrative can be built on fragile logic. Hiring, budget, runway, revenue commitments, and investor confidence can all be distorted.